An Cosantóir

An Cosantóir July / August 2025 www.military.ie/magazine W ith General Seán Clancy appointed as the new head of the European Union Military Committee, the role of Ireland's Defence Forces and its military intelligence capabilities will grow in importance. This is the first time Ireland has had such a role. It comes at a time when the threat landscape is more complex than ever before. The EU sits in a Europe that is questioning some of its long-held norms about security, out of theatre operations, and the nature of the current threat landscape. The pressures on Irish peacekeepers, intelligence services, and the armed forces will only intensify from May of this year, when General Clancy took up his post. Geopolitics is once again the driver of deteriorating security environments and the rise of non-state actors with malevolent intentions, but it is no longer the geopolitics of old, with its clear categories of nation states and their established structures and diplomatic channels. There is now a proliferation of fragmented and volatile states across the globe, often subject to violent fighting over claims of contested legitimacy. The rise of non-state actors, such as Hamas or the Wagner Group who have access to vast resources and form their own intelligence sharing networks, is a growing complication for military thinkers looking at how to best deploy Ireland's peacekeeping units and address intelligence needs. Overshadowing all this is the increased volatility of American defence and security interests under a new administration. For Ireland, the impact of an increasingly complex security landscape will be in decision-making about deployment of Irish peacekeepers, the importance of intelligence, and the strategic oversight of tangled, often messy security threats that seem to defy neat categorisation. AN EMERGING AND COMPLEX THREAT LANDSCAPE Five trends help describe how the threat landscape is evolving. Complex geopolitics shapes the environment, while sub-state actors, digital technologies, changing roles for institutions, and uncertain intelligence approaches reveal flashpoints and undercurrents that drive violence. COMPLEX GEOPOLITICS Geopolitics is once again a key driver for military decision-making. The UK is looking at Ireland as part of a wider rethinking of its defence posture, focusing specifically on Northern Ireland for strategic and resource decisions, and on its wider relationship with the Republic because of Russian activities along Europe's border. Geopolitics is also driving fresh thinking on EU security paradigms, due to the proximity of the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the spillover impact of other conflicts and crises that impact Europe. As old conflicts reignite across the Middle East, new problems emerge in the China-Russia-North Korea region. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria rearranges existing security and power relations in ways that are still unfolding. What impact this will have on Iran, which both supported the Assad regime, and used Syria as training ground for its proxy armies, is unknown. Israel is taking the opportunity to do serious damage to Iranian assets while the new Syrian regime finds it footing. Iran, while appearing to be tightly controlled by its theocratic rulers, has deepening internal fractures that make it less stable than it appears. Israel and Gaza, once again in conflict, dominate diplomatic and security responses in the Middle East and abroad. Violent civil conflict continues in Yemen, Libya, and Iraq with no sign of cessation in sight. The growth of jihadist movements, from the Horn of Africa to the Sahal region have made the area a haven for criminal gangs, traffickers, and arms dealers and generated humanitarian crises on a massive scale. Russia's expansionist ambitions, whether invading Ukraine or pushing against the perimeters of Poland, Finland, and the Nordic ARTICLE BY MARIYAM HASHAM PHD 24 | AN EMERGING THREAT LANDSCAPE

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